• 论文 •    

基于灰色理论的产品寿命预测研究

韦康南,姚立纲,吴志欢   

  1. (福州大学 机械工程与自动化学院,福建 福州 350002)
  • 出版日期:2005-10-15 发布日期:2005-10-25

Research on products life cycle prediction based on gray theory

WEI Kang-nan, YAO Li-gang; WU Zhi-huan   

  1. (Sch. of Mechanical Eng. & Automation, Fuzhou Univ., Fuzhou 350002, China)
  • Online:2005-10-15 Published:2005-10-25

摘要: 为了向产品生命周期设计提供寿命信息,在基于特征的产品全生命周期设计集成信息模型的基础上,提出利用灰色GM(1,1)模型对少量已有同类产品的寿命数据进行预测,扩充样本量,由灰色关联度分析得出其最符合的分布类型,由此预测与产品生命周期设计相关的寿命指标值。同时,在VC++6.0环境下,开发了产品寿命预测模块,并给出了应用实例。

关键词: 全生命周期设计集成信息模型, 灰色预测模型, 寿命预测

Abstract: In order to provide life cycle information for the products whole life cycle design, based on feature-based products whole life cycle design integrated information model, prediction was suggested to carry out on few existing similar products for life cycle data by application of Gray Model (GM), and to enlarge sample volumes so as to get most matching distribution type through analysis of gray association degree. Hence life cycle index associated with products whole life cycle design was predicted. Finally, the prediction module of life cycle was developed by VC++6.0, and the application example was also presented.

Key words: whole life cycle design integrated information model, gray prediction model, life cycle prediction

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