• 论文 •    

动态条件下的供应链平稳性分析

张  炜,林  杰   

  1. 同济大学 经济管理学院,上海  200092
  • 收稿日期:2004-10-11 修回日期:2005-01-12 出版日期:2006-01-15 发布日期:2006-01-25
  • 基金资助:
    国家863/CIMS主题资助项目(2002AA4143410)。

Analysis on stability of dynamic supply chain

ZHANG Wei, LIN Jie   

  1. Sch. of Economics & Management , Tongji Univ., Shanghai  200092, China
  • Received:2004-10-11 Revised:2005-01-12 Online:2006-01-15 Published:2006-01-25
  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the National High-Tech. R&D Program for CIMS, China (No.2002AA413410).

摘要: 为了提高动态条件下供应链运作的平稳性,提出了一种基于马尔可夫链的供应链平稳性分析方法。该方法将马尔可夫链引入供应链研究中,体现出供应链的动态性。通过分析动态供应链中单个节点作业时间的变化对整个供应链运作周期的影响,求得每个节点对整个供应链平稳性的贡献率,找出了影响整个供应链平稳性的关键环节。最后,对具体案例进行了验证分析。

关键词: 供应链管理, 平稳性, 随机过程, 马尔可夫链

Abstract: To improve the stability of dynamic supply chain, a Makvo chain based method was proposed for analyzing the stability of supply chain. By introducing Makvo chain into the studies of supply chain, the dynamism of supply chain was embodied. The impacts of changes of enterprise nodes operation time on the whole operation period of supply chain were analyzed. The contribution value of each node to the whole supply chain stability was obtained, then the key factors influencing the whole supply chain stability were identified. Finally, a case study was given to validate the method.

Key words: supply chain management, stabilization, random process, Makvo chain

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