关键词: 搭接网络计划, 关键路径, 灰色预测

Abstract: Aiming at the characteristics of small sampling in aeronautic-product project scheme, a new prediction method to acquire the time limit of working process was studied based on Grey System theory. A grey prediction model was constructed according to the accumulated data in history of working procedure, and with this model the grey time limit was whitened to certain value. Based on the model, the principle of time delay conversion was proposed to transform spliced relation and time delay to general time delay. Therefore the spliced network could be changed to general network. In turn, the model calculating time-parameter of complex network plan was deduced. Furthermore, the judgment criteria for critical path and working process were obtained. Finally, the search algorithm for critical path in aeronautic-product project scheme network was presented, and the effectiveness of the algorithm was verified by an example.

Key words: spliced network plan, critical path, gray prediction