关键词: 风险量化, 三角模糊数, 层次分析法

Abstract: To improve the existing risk analysis method, a new risk analysis method was proposed to evaluate risk based on the triangular fuzzy number and Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP). This method introduced the triangular fuzzy number to represent experts judgment information of risk factors and used the AHP to rank these risk factors. So, the detailed ranking of projects risk factors by risk probability, risk loss and both of them was obtained. Finally, the risk analysis of aviation project was discussed and an aviation project was introduced as an example to demonstrate the process and validity of the method. The general steps of the method applied to the example were detailed.

Key words: risk analysis, triangular fuzzy number, analytic hierarchy process, judgment matrix