关键词: 动车组, 里程预测, 高级修计划, 交路转移概率矩阵

Abstract: To achieve high precision mileage prediction of Electrical Multiple Units (EMU),a new mileage prediction algorithm of EMU based on the routes connection law was presented.The data recording time was taken as the piecewise parameter,and the piecewise function was proposed to attach the time weight to the history operating data of EMU.According to the situation of routing connection in the history data and combining with the time weight,a transportation probability matrix of routes as the carrier of the routes connection law was proposed,and the matrix considering the situation of new routes was revised.Based on the probability value of the routes' transportation probability matrix,the routes prediction was realized in a random way.Experiments showed that compared with the traditional daily average mileage method,the proposed algorithm had significantly improved the prediction accuracy and stability of the prediction results.

Key words: electrical multiple units, mileage prediction, high-level maintenance planning, transportation probability matrix of routes