Abstract: To analyze the influence of reverse logistics for bullwhip effect in closed-loop supply chain, four level closed-loop supply model was built by using System Dynamics(SD)and Vensim software. Through changing the simulation of return proportion, recycling products remanufacturing proportion and delay recovery, the fact that reverse logistics could weak the bullwhip effects of forward logistics was proved. If the return proportion was higher, the number of nodes of recycling and manufacturing was less; if the delay recovery was shorter, the effect of reverse Logistics for bullwhip effect was more obvious.

Key words: closed-loop supply chains, reverse logistics, bullwhip effect, system dynamics

摘要： 为了基于闭环供应链研究逆向物流对牛鞭效应的影响，运用系统动力学原理和VENSIM软件构建四级闭环供应链模型。通过改变回收比率、回收产品再制造比例和回收延迟证的仿真，证明逆向物流的存在可以减弱正向物流中的牛鞭效应，而且逆向物流的回收比率越高，回收再制造经过的节点越少，回收延迟越小，则逆向物流对牛鞭效应的减弱效果越明显。

关键词: 闭环供应链, 逆向物流, 牛鞭效应, 系统动力学