Abstract: Based on life cycle, the collaboration mechanism in mobile supply chain of manufacturing industry was explored. The production diffusion process was described by using system dynamics theory. A cooperative game model was built to examine partner selection of mobile operators. Through evolution game theory, the collaboration in manufacturing alliance was discussed. Based on Anylogic 6.5.0, a multi-agent simulation system was developed and validated by lifecycle theory. The results showed that the collaboration efficiency of maturation stage was improved by using mass media, and the word-of-mouth effect was better for decline stage, and the maturation stage was extended; penalty mechanism was beneficial to improve the collaboration level of maturation stage, and the cycle of supply chain was extended; the collaboration levels of growth stage and maturation stage would be improved by increasing the manufacturers scale and service business proportion; the collaboration level of maturation stage and decline stage would be raised by improving the strength and scale of operators.

Key words: collaboration, game theory, diffusion theory, life cycle, multi-Agent

摘要： 基于生命周期视角，研究了移动商务场景中制造业供应链的协同机制。利用系统动力学描述产品扩散过程，并产生实时需求数据；进一步驱动上游合作博弈，实现运营商对服务商的选择；通过进化博弈理论探讨制造联盟协同满足市场需求。基于Anylogic 6.5.0实现了多智能体仿真系统，并引入生命周期理论进行验证和分析，结果表明利用大众媒介能提高成熟期协同水平，而口碑传播对衰退期最有利，且能拉长成熟期；惩罚机制有利于提高衰退期的协同水平，拉长供应链周期；增大制造商规模和制造服务商比例能提高成长期和成熟期的协同水平；改善运营商规模和实力有利于提高成熟期和衰退期的协同水平。

关键词: 协同, 博弈论, 扩散理论, 生命周期, 多智能体