Abstract: Due to the uncertainty of mould projects manufacturing process and dynamic of resource demand, a stochastic evolution model for mould projects based on discrete time Markov was established. Based on this model, a multiple phase optimization method for mould projects scheduling was proposed. Each task was viewed as an independent Markov decision, and dynamic programming method was used to solve the optimal scheduling problem with aim of minimizing the completion time for each phase. Compared with the other three heuristics, the simulation result showed that the algorithm was advantageous for uncertain mould projects scheduling.

Key words: mold projects, Markov decision process, project management, dynamic programming

摘要： 针对模具项目群制造过程的不确定性和资源需求的动态性，建立了基于离散时间Markov的模具制造项目随机演化模型。基于该模型，提出一种分阶段求优的模具项目计划制定方法，将项目群的每一个任务视为一个独立的阶段，以最小化每个阶段的完工时间为目标，利用动态规划方法对每一个阶段的任务求解最优的调度策略。通过仿真算例将该方法与三种启发式算法进行比较分析，结果表明该方法在不确定环境下制定模具项目群项目计划时具有明显的优越性。

关键词: 模具, Markov决策过程, 项目计划, 动态规划