Abstract: Like biological system evolution was influenced by environment, technological system also experienced constant changes due to impact from product market. The previous technological evolution theory was used for predicting incremental technological innovation which was on single segment S curve. However, the evolutions among S curve belonged to the evolution route bifurcation which couldn't be predicted by means of traditional technological evolution path. Based on technological evolution theory, innovation in technological evolution process was divided into Incremental Innovation and Mutational Innovation, the latter included Radical Innovation and Disruptive Innovation, the producing beforehand of Mutational Innovation was doped out through technological evolution bifurcation. Technological evolution bifurcation was studied deeply and the mechanism of technological evolution path bifurcation was summed up which was based on Mutational Innovation, so as to achieve the prediction of technological evolution bifurcation and the producing beforehand. Finally, the innovative design to electric fusion machine was conducted; the validity of the proposed method was also verified, which was based on the advanced technological evolution bifurcation producing beforehand method.

Key words: technological evolution bifurcation, incremental innovation, disruptive innovation, radical innovation, technology forecasting, product design

摘要： 在通常的S进化曲线过程中，以往的技术进化理论可以用来对单段S曲线上的渐进性技术创新进行预测，但S曲线间的进化属于进化路线分支，传统技术进化路线理论无法预测。为此，基于技术进化理论，将技术进化过程中的创新分为渐进性创新和突变性创新，突变性创新包括突破性创新和破坏性创新，其事前产生由技术进化分支预测。对技术进化分支进行了深入研究，归纳出基于突变性创新的技术进化路线分支机理，以寻求实现技术进化分支的预测与事前产生。基于所提的技术进化分支事前产生方法，对电熔焊机进行了创新设计，验证了所提方法的有效性。

关键词: 技术进化分支, 渐进性创新, 破坏性创新, 突破性创新, 技术预测, 产品设计