Abstract: To solve the problem that the decline of staff efficiency and maximum capacity due to high staff floating rate in labor intensive enterprises,a system dynamics model with two aging chains was established by using system dynamics theory,which took a shoe enterprise as a study object.The new staffs were divided into two categories according to the level of skills in this model,and the influence of the changes in staff growth,recruiting delay and promoting delay on staff efficiency and capacity was analyzed with model simulation.The results showed that staff efficiency and maximum capacity were improved by reducing the promoting delay of new staff when the staffs kept growing.Thus two policies were proposed: the promoting delay was by using experienced staff to guided new staff in policy 1;the promoting delay was shortened by guiding new staffs to self-study in policy 2.Through simulating the effects of two policies,the effectiveness and difference were analyzed,and the best use scenarios were determined.The policies were proved to be effective and practical through the implementation in the case of enterprise.

Key words: system dynamics, aging chain, labor intensive enterprises, staff efficiency, recruiting delay, promoting delay

摘要： 为解决劳动密集型企业员工频繁流动导致生产效率和产能下降的问题,运用系统动力学理论和方法,以某鞋材企业为研究对象,建立了含有两条老化链的系统动力学模型。在该模型中,将入职的新员工根据工作经验分为两类。通过模型仿真分析了员工总数增长、雇佣延迟、成长延迟的变化对产能和生产效率的影响,结果表明,在员工总数保持增长的条件下,缩短新员工成长延迟有助于提高企业生产效率和最大产能,进而为企业制定了两种政策方案：方案1通过熟练工全职指导新员工来缩短成长延迟;方案2通过管理层引导新员工自主学习来缩短成长延迟。通过仿真模拟两种方案的实施效果,分析了两种方案的有效性和差异性,并给出了最佳使用情景,通过对企业实际实施验证了该政策方案的可实施性与有效性。

关键词: 系统动力学, 老化链, 劳动密集型产业, 生产效率, 雇佣延迟, 成长延迟