Abstract: Supply line underweighting is a robust ordering decision error.To find a behavioral antecedent to supply line underweighting,a multi-period one seller's ordering model was established and the behavioral ordering decision model was depicted by a demand-chasing fashion.The difference between the behavioral model and the basic model were compared through simulation.The recency effect was a significant behavioral antecedent to supply line underweighting.As the recency effect was strengthened,the supply line underweighting intensifies and the operating cost increased.Under the influence of the recency effect,the increased ordering lead time and demand volatility intensified supply line underweighting,but the increased batch size weakened supply line underweighting.

Key words: supply line underweighting, recency effect, behavioral cause, bullwhip effect, ordering lead time

摘要： 为了识别低估供应线现象的成因,构建一个单层级多周期的订货销售模型,采用需求追逐的方式建立订货决策的行为模型。通过仿真对比行为模型和基准模型的差异,发现近因效应是导致低估供应线的一个显著的行为原因;随着近因效应的增加,低估供应线的程度加剧,运营成本相应提高;在近因效应影响下,低估供应线程度随订货提前期的增加、需求波动的增大而加剧,随订货批量的增加而减弱。

关键词: 低估供应线, 近因效应, 行为成因, 牛鞭效应, 订货提前期